Sir John Curtice: How Reform's capture of the Brexit vote could be enough to win an election

"On 3 October 2021, Reform UK held its first conference - a modest one-day get-togetherin Manchester - only a short distance from the much larger Conservative Party gathering, taking place nearby at the city's Convention Complex at the same time. At the Reform event, only a few hundred activists were present in the function room - and Nigel Farage, not yet party leader, was reportedlynot among them. Reform was polling around 3% and had won just two councillorsin that May's local elections."

"What a difference four years makes. Reform's annual conference takes place this weekend in Birmingham, with 5,500 tickets reportedlyalready sold. It is thoughtthat one in five of the nation's lobbyists will be there too. The party has now been ahead in the polls for five months. Never before has a party other than Conservative or Labour been ahead in the polls for so long."

"Recent attempts by YouGovand More in Commonto estimate what the party's support might mean in terms of MPs suggest that if an election were held now, Reform would be the largest party by far, albeit probably short of an overall majority. At the moment, Nigel Farage - now firmly in place as Reform's leader -appears potentially on course to become the UK's next prime minister."

On 3 October 2021, Reform UK held a modest one-day conference in Manchester with only a few hundred activists, polling around 3% and holding two councillors from that May's local elections. Four years later, Reform's annual conference in Birmingham has reportedly sold 5,500 tickets and attracted many lobbyists. The party has led national polls for five months, averaging 30–31% since success in recent English local elections. Recent YouGov and More in Common estimates suggest Reform would be the largest party if an election were held now, though probably without an overall majority. Nigel Farage now leads the party and appears a potential next prime minister, while uncertainty remains about sustaining support before the next general election.

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