Sir John Curtice: Greens' win means future of British politics is more uncertain than ever

"Now Hannah Spencer has already claimed her place in the history books as the first ever Green candidate to win a parliamentary by-election. Not only did Spencer win, but she won well, significantly outperforming the expectations of the polls. Rather than winning narrowly, the party won 40.7%, enough to put them as much as 12 points ahead of second placed Reform."

"Apart from the exceptional circumstances of the Rochdale by-election in 2024, when Labour disowned their candidate, leaving George Galloway to defeat a second-placed independent candidate, it is the first time that neither Labour nor the Conservatives have been one of the top two parties in a by-election contest."

"With the two parties both running at 20% or less in the polls, the Conservative-Labour duopoly that has long dominated post-war British politics has never looked weaker. The Conservatives are struggling to fend off the challenge from Reform, and now, at the other end of the spectrum, Labour's traditional position of the principal party of the left of British politics is evidently under threat from the Greens."

The Green Party achieved a historic victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election, with candidate Hannah Spencer winning 40.7% of the vote, significantly exceeding polling expectations. This represents the party's first parliamentary by-election win and a 27.5-point increase from their 2024 performance. Labour fell to third place with 25.4%, their worst result in the area since 1931, while the Conservatives lost their deposit with just 1.9%, their worst by-election result ever. Reform came second with 28.7%. This outcome marks the first time since Rochdale 2024 that neither Labour nor Conservatives finished in the top two positions, reflecting the weakening of the traditional two-party system that has dominated post-war British politics.

Read at www.bbc.com