"Boris Johnson's election victory in 2019 was so sweeping you could walk from Land's End to Hadrian's Wall without ever leaving a Tory constituency. You could also have walked between two constituencies where More in Common ran focus groups with 2019 Conservative voters this week Warrington South and Godalming and Ash. These are two seats that tell the story of the breadth and collapse of the Conservatives' 2019 coalition."
"It is fair to say that even 14 months into her leadership, views of Kemi Badenoch remain fuzzy. But when played a clip of the video Badenoch filmed announcing her dismissal of Jenrick, the groups were unusually approving. Sarah, an admin officer from Godalming, said she was blown away, while James, an IT engineer from Warrington, described Badenoch as decisive. In both groups, the participants said they wanted to see more like that from Badenoch and wondered why they had not seen it before."
"Godalming and Ash, by contrast, is deep in the blue wall. An affluent commuter seat in Surrey, it voted remain, and in a rare bright spot for the Conservatives in 2024, Jeremy Hunt managed to fend off the Liberal Democrats to hold the seat. These very different seats are now central to the battle for the right that exploded back on to the political scene this week with Robert Jenrick's defection/dismissal."
Boris Johnson's 2019 victory created a geographically extensive Conservative coalition. Focus groups in Warrington South and Godalming and Ash illustrate that coalition's breadth and collapse. Warrington South, a north-west marginal that voted Leave in 2016 and backed Johnson in 2019, swung to Labour in 2024 and modelling now suggests Reform UK would win comfortably. Godalming and Ash, an affluent Surrey commuter seat that voted Remain, remained Conservative in 2024 with Jeremy Hunt holding off the Liberal Democrats. Voter reactions to Kemi Badenoch's dismissal of Robert Jenrick were unusually approving, though for some it recalled reasons they removed the Conservatives from office.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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