"Reform has attracted 38% of bets placed during that period, despite its odds drifting from 5/2 to 3/1, which may reflect betting sentiment rather than direct voter support; political commentator Matt Goodwin, who is associated with the party's campaign messaging, has also observed market movement in line with the party's position."
"The Green Party of England and Wales continues to draw significant support from bettors. The Greens account for 34% of bets placed in the last hour, and candidate Hannah Spencer has been priced as short as 1/2 with one bookmaker to win the Greater Manchester constituency."
"While betting markets do not necessarily predict final results, they can reflect shifts in sentiment, momentum, and perceived viability among candidates. Still, they should be interpreted with caution given their limitations in forecasting actual voter behaviour."
Betting markets for the Gorton & Denton by-election reveal heightened competition, with Reform UK attracting 38% of bets despite odds drifting from 5/2 to 3/1, and the Green Party drawing 34% of bets with candidate Hannah Spencer priced as short as 1/2. Labour, which has held the constituency since 1935, maintains steady support with odds shortening from 5/1 to 4/1 overnight, though remaining behind the Greens in market pricing. Betting markets reflect shifts in sentiment and perceived viability among candidates, suggesting voters view the contest as more competitive than previous cycles. However, these markets should be interpreted cautiously, as turnout patterns, tactical voting, and late swings often determine by-election outcomes.
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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