Politics has tossed friendship out of the window as Keir Starmer is realising | Simon Jenkins

"The Tories took years of Westminster turmoil to reach their Liz Truss moment. It has taken Labour only two. Britain has a weakened prime minister, a fatally divided government and a shambolic House of Commons. No one beyond Keir Starmer's looming rivals can seriously believe the cure lies in his immediate toppling. There is no leader in waiting obviously superior to Starmer, certainly not his former health secretary, Wes Streeting."

"Out of naked ambition, he has ditched a critical job in an extraordinary display of cabinet nastiness. As the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, suggests, the effect of a leadership change on the economy could be severe. Yet Westminster's corridors are bubbling and seething, close to explosion. Something is very wrong with British politics. Starmer is a victim of democratic circumstance."

"He has been faced with adverse opinion polls and a recent round of midterm local elections in England. These elections, which are nothing to do with Westminster, always tend to go against the party in power if seldom so dramatically. The election results in Scotland and Wales were devastating, however. Labour is also suffering from a Europe-wide collapse in conventional party loyalties."

"There were earlier signs of this. In the 2024 election, Labour's popular vote under Starmer was actually lower than that under his predecessor as leader, Jeremy Corbyn, in 2019. As it was, that victory offered Starmer a golden opportunity to refashion Labour as a new political force. The opportunity was in the form of two challenges left him by the outgoing Tories."

Britain has a weakened prime minister, a fatally divided government, and a shambolic House of Commons. A leadership change is unlikely to provide a cure because no obvious successor is clearly superior. Labour’s position is strained by adverse opinion polls and midterm local elections in England, which typically punish the party in power. Scotland and Wales election results were especially damaging. Labour is also affected by a Europe-wide collapse in conventional party loyalties, with Labour’s popular vote under Starmer lower than under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019. Starmer had an opportunity to reshape Labour after winning in 2024, including tailoring economic growth to the digital revolution and reforming a dysfunctional welfare state. Starmer has been in office only two years and has not yet been shown to have failed, though public finances have been difficult to stabilize.

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