Plaid Cymru ousts Labour in Caerphilly byelection
Briefly

Plaid Cymru ousts Labour in Caerphilly byelection
"Plaid Cymru has won the Caerphilly byelection in south Wales, a dramatic result signalling a sharp realignment in Welsh politics with repercussions for the whole of Britain. Rhun ap Iorwerth's party, which wants Wales to become independent, seized the Senedd (Welsh parliament) constituency from Labour and resisted a fierce challenge from Reform UK. The victory for its candidate, Lindsay Whittle, is a huge boost for Plaid, which believes it can win next year's Senedd elections, ending a century of Labour dominance in Wales."
"It leaves Labour, which runs the Welsh government, holding 29 of the 60 Senedd seats and struggling to pass its 2026-27 budget, which could leave the people of Wales facing cuts to public services. What has happened in Caerphilly is also a blow for the UK Labour prime minister, Keir Starmer, as he tries to fight off the surge from Reform across Britain."
"Migration is not a devolved issue, and only about 3% of the people in the area were not born in the UK, but Reform made much of a vow to end what it called Labour and Plaid's mass immigration agenda. However, the result suggests the people of Caerphilly may have been more concerned about issues that Labour in Wales does have control of, such as health and education."
"It is possible Reform's campaign was undermined by its former leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, admitting bribery charges relating to statements made in favour of Russia in the European parliament. Last month the Plaid leader said next year's Senedd elections would be a two-horse race between Plaid and Reform. Polling for next year's Senedd elections puts Plaid just ahead of Reform (30% to 29%) with Labour on 14% and the Conservatives on 11%."
Plaid Cymru captured the Caerphilly Senedd seat from Labour, marking a sharp shift in Welsh politics and boosting Plaid’s belief it can win next year's Senedd elections. The win reduces Labour to 29 of 60 Senedd seats and complicates passage of the 2026-27 budget, risking public service cuts. The result is a setback for UK Labour leader Keir Starmer amid Reform UK’s national surge. Immigration featured in the campaign despite being non-devolved and locally uncommon. Allegations against Reform’s former Welsh leader and close Plaid–Reform polling further shape the contest ahead.
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