Once whispered, now discussed': the rise of dubious claims of civil war in the UK

"It is a darkly dystopian vision of Britain's future, in which tens of thousands die in a bitter civil war in just a few years time. Yet such forecasts are no longer limited to niche corners of the internet or the X feed of Elon Musk, condemned by Downing Street for claiming that war in Britain was inevitable after the post-Southport rioting."

"A former government adviser on counter-insurgency, he envisages a messy asymmetrical conflict breaking down along urban and rural, but ultimately ethnic lines. Three sides will emerge, he claims: a Muslim population barricaded into urban enclaves, a white British one that regards government as illegitimate and captured by elites, and the increasingly beleaguered vestiges of the state. Betz, a softly spoken Canadian, speculates that as many as 23,000 deaths a year can be expected."

Predictions portray a dystopian Britain where tens of thousands could die in a civil war within a few years. Forecasts have shifted from fringe corners of the internet to mainstream outlets, social media neighbourhood groups, national newspapers, and speeches by prominent MPs. Some academics and former counter-insurgency advisers foresee an asymmetrical conflict fracturing along urban-rural and ethnic lines. Analysts predict three antagonistic blocs: Muslim urban enclaves, a white British insurgent movement rejecting government legitimacy, and weakened state remnants. These scenarios include high casualty estimates and growing interest from the public, thinktanks, and journalists.

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