"In a report published today, economics consultancy ChamberlainWalker says early evidence points to a significantly larger exodus of non-doms following the abolition of non-dom status in April 2025. The firm argues that Treasury assurances-based on HMRC payroll returns-that departures are broadly in line with forecasts understate the scale of outflows because many of the wealthiest non-doms are investors rather than salaried employees and therefore fall outside PAYE data."
"The report argues that who leaves matters more than how many. If departures are skewed towards the richest non-doms-particularly former RBC payers-the impact could be a "triple whammy" for revenues: A larger-than-expected hit to the UK income tax base as top contributors exit. A smaller-than-modelled FIG tax base as high-earning individuals take foreign income and gains offshore. Lower proceeds from the Temporary Repatriation Facility (TRF) if fewer assets are onshored."
"The Chancellor has been warned she is "flying blind" into November's Budget after fresh analysis suggested far more non-domiciled residents have left the UK than the Government anticipated, with billions in expected tax revenues now at risk. ChamberlainWalker cautions that the Government's projected £34bn haul from the reforms rests on "optimistic and incomplete" assumptions about behaviour, including that only 1,200 people would leave and that a small group-"in the mid-thousands"-would remain and pay substantially more under the new foreign income and gains (FIG) regime."
Early evidence points to a significantly larger exodus of non-domiciled residents following the abolition of non-dom status in April 2025, with many wealthiest individuals likely omitted from PAYE-based HMRC payroll data because they are investors rather than salaried employees. Government projections of a £34bn haul rely on assumptions that only about 1,200 people would leave and that a small group in the mid-thousands would remain and pay substantially more under the foreign income and gains regime. If departures are skewed to the richest, revenue losses could include reductions to the income tax base, a diminished FIG tax base, and lower Temporary Repatriation Facility proceeds.
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