No feelgood factor for Reeves as Iran war snuffs out economic upturn

"The Office for National Statistics reports that, after an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate to 4.9% in last month's data, it ticked back up to 5% between January and March the first set of figures affected by the conflict. The chancellor wanted this to be the year she could claim to have brought stability to the economy and public finances, with falling inflation and widely expected interest rate cuts restoring the feelgood factor. Instead, the Iran war has unleashed a fresh wave of inflation with the latest data on this to come on Wednesday and rocked business confidence."

"More timely employment data, using PAYE data from HMRC, suggest a more significant shock may be under way than is obvious from the standard Labour Force Survey. The number of payrolled jobs in the economy fell 100,000, or 0.3%, in April on this measure though the ONS stresses that this is a provisional estimate. That was the third-largest single monthly fall since this series began in 2014. The annual rate of decline in payrolled jobs, at 0.7%, was the fastest for five years."

"The data also underlined how tough the next few months are likely to feel for households. Regular pay, excluding bonuses, increased at a rate of just 3.4% from January to March, the ONS says. That was the weakest rate since August-October 2020, in the depths of the Covid pandemic, and will mean many families have already started to feel the pinch as prices rise. In the private sector, regular pay growth was just 3%."

"If there is a modest silver lining, it may be that such anaemic pay growth helps to still some of the worst fears of Bank of England policymakers, that workers could bid up their wages in response to the price shock, helping inflation to become entrenched. That becomes harder to imagine in a labour market in which un"

The UK unemployment rate increased to 5% between January and March after falling to 4.9% the previous month. The change coincides with the first employment figures affected by the Iran war. The conflict has contributed to renewed inflation pressures and weaker business confidence, undermining expectations of stability and interest rate cuts. More timely PAYE-based data from HMRC show payrolled jobs fell by 100,000, or 0.3%, in April, with the annual decline accelerating to 0.7%. Regular pay excluding bonuses rose only 3.4% from January to March, the weakest since late 2020, and private-sector regular pay rose just 3%.

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