"Latest Ipsos polling has the Tory party's national vote share on just 15%. YouGov polling has the party on 18%. The last time the Conservative party polled 30% or more was in September 2022. A party that gave people a choice at the ballot box has become a husk. It is, as a former MP colleague said to me recently, akin to an empty warehouse the building is still there but the goods inside have all but disappeared."
"Importantly, the reality is that the more the Tories talk about uniting the right, the more they are essentially telling all voters the two parties are now so similar that there is no real difference between them. In effect, they are either validating a pro-Reform UK voter to switch to Reform or an anti-Reform voter to switch to a different party standing against Reform."
Conservative support has collapsed, with Ipsos showing 15% and YouGov 18%, far below September 2022 levels. The party's electoral base has fragmented: some voters moved to Reform UK in the north, to Liberal Democrats in the south, or to Labour. Proposals to 'unite the right' assume static Tory support and additive vote totals, which is false. Messaging that equates the Conservatives with Reform UK signals similarity between the parties, encouraging pro-Reform voters to switch and prompting anti-Reform Conservatives to defect elsewhere. Therefore, uniting the right risks accelerating Tory decline rather than restoring electoral competitiveness.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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