'Makerfield is suddenly at the epicentre of British politics'

Makerfield is a parliamentary constituency in the suburbs of Wigan and nearby former mining towns, made up of eight wards and parts of two more. About 76,000 voters live there, and many residents still identify as Lancastrians despite being in Greater Manchester. The seat has been Labour for more than 120 years and is considered a safe “red wall” constituency. In the 2024 general election, Labour retained the seat with a majority of just over 5,000, with Reform UK second. Local elections saw Reform UK win all seats available in Makerfield. The constituency is predominantly white British born, with a large share voting to leave the EU, creating conditions where Reform can perform well, though a by-election may be harder for Reform than local contests.

"The constituency is suddenly at the epicentre of British politics - and the result could decide the next prime minister. The first thing to learn about Makerfield is it isn't actually a place. It's a constituency made up of eight wards, and parts of two more, none of which are called Makerfield. It is home to about 76,000 voters in the suburbs of Wigan and nearby former mining towns and villages."

"Makerfield - and under its previous name of Ince - has been Labour for more than a 120 years. It is considered one of the party's safest red wall seats but recently things have shifted. In the 2024 general election, Josh Simons retained the seat for Labour with a majority of just over 5,000. Reform UK came second. However, at the recent local elections, Nigel Farage's party swept the board, winning all seats up for grabs in Makerfield."

"Ninety-six percent of people in the constituency are white British born and 65% voted to leave the EU. "This is exactly the sort of place that Reform can expect to do well," said Prof of Politics Jon Tonge, from the University of Liverpool. This is "Brexit" land as well as "Labour" land, he added."

"But can the results of the local elections be replicated at a parliamentary by-election? Voters often use by-elections to "kick" the incumbent government. Tonge believes this time though it will be "tougher" for Reform UK. "Labour's vote in those counci"

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