Lib Dems aiming to go big as they spot electoral opportunity

"With memories still fresh of 2019, when pre-election predictions of 200-plus seats were followed by a haul of precisely 11, the first rule of Liberal Democrat conference is that you never talk about numbers. Nonetheless, one thing is abundantly clear: this is a party thinking big. That might sound anomalous when we are perhaps three years from an election and the Lib Dems already have 72 MPs, the biggest contingent in a century."

"At the gathering in Bournemouth, MPs and officials were as good as unanimous on two fronts: first, that Ed Davey's party increasingly faces a head-to-head fight with Reform; and second, that this unlikely and emerging battle could provide the party with an unprecedented electoral opportunity. Such talk is necessarily freighted with caveats, including the very obvious one that the political landscape could change again. But it is based on data as well as hope."

"The assumption is that the bulk of the 60-odd seats the Lib Dems won from the Conservatives in 2024 are relatively safe, partly because of the Japanese knotweed approach to embedding MPs but also because of the Tories' continued collapse under Kemi Badenoch. What has been more unexpected is the plummet in Keir Starmer's poll ratings. In May's local elections across England, the Lib Dems won more council seats than both Labour and the Conservatives, the first time this has ever happened."

The Liberal Democrats currently hold 72 MPs, their largest contingent in a century, and are pursuing an expansionist strategy despite recent memory of 2019 setbacks. Party figures view the political landscape as unusually volatile and increasingly expect a head-to-head contest with Reform, seeing an opening to become the principal challengers in many areas. Strategists believe around 60 seats gained from the Conservatives in 2024 are relatively secure due to incumbent entrenchment and Tory decline under Kemi Badenoch. Declines in Labour support and a historic local-election performance have convinced the party to prepare for targeting a large number of seats, including new territory.

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