Last chance, Keir? MPs in despair as crisis engulfs Downing Street

"The debacle of last summer, when Keir Starmer caved in over welfare reforms after promised concessions failed to convince his mutinous backbenchers, was viewed as a low point for his government. Now, amazingly, it has happened all over again. If the repetition of history was not already enough, with the ructions over releasing government documents about Peter Mandelson, once again Starmer has a certain Angela Rayner to thank, in part, for digging him out of a political hole."

"With welfare reform it was the then-deputy prime minister who bluntly told Downing Street that their offering to Labour MPs was not enough to prevent a likely Commons defeat, prompting No 10 to drop the bulk of the plans. On Wednesday, Rayner was a key voice advocating that the intelligence and security committee (ISC) should vet the Mandelson files, not No 10, a decision eventually adopted by the government in its amendment to a Conservative motion."

"There are differences. The welfare plans were months in the making, and a key plank of the government's programme. The chaos over what Starmer did or did not know about Mandelson before making him ambassador to Washington was, instead, a result of US authorities releasing new files about Jeffrey Epstein and his associates. But the consequences are the same: a weakened Downing Street, and Labour MPs increasingly aware of both their own power and the sheer fallibility of Starmer and the team around him."

Two crises have exposed vulnerabilities at Downing Street: last summer's welfare reform U-turn and the recent row over Peter Mandelson documents. Angela Rayner played a decisive role in both episodes by warning that concessions were insufficient and by pushing for the intelligence and security committee to vet the Mandelson files. Meg Hillier also helped broker the ISC compromise. The Mandelson chaos stemmed from US authorities releasing files linked to Jeffrey Epstein. The combined episodes have weakened the government's standing, energised Labour backbenchers, and left Starmer's team appearing fallible and politically exposed.

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