Keir Starmer's legacy could be electoral reform or Farage as prime minister | Polly Toynbee

"Wake up to the peril. As MPs return to parliament, they should abandon that self-deluding pretence that it could never happen here in our moderate and tolerant land. On the contrary, Britain is at more risk of a populist right takeover than many of our European neighbours. With Labour in an electoral slough of despond, and the Tories looking dead already, the reptilian grin of Nigel Farage haunts the political landscape after his satisfactory summer spent stoking division and cynicism."

"Our first past the post (FPTP) elections make us particularly vulnerable. As Rob Ford, professor of politics at Manchester University, notes: This is now a Farage-friendly electoral system. Reform UK has reached the tipping point where winning as little as 30% support in our corkscrewed lottery of a voting system could propel him into No 10, however much that appals the other 70% of voters."

"As it happens, in the Commons on Tuesday, MPs will be voting on a fairer electoral system. Not, alas, for themselves in this most unrepresentative parliament in all history, where Labour commands almost two-thirds of the seats on just 34% of the vote. MPs tomorrow are voting on the more minor matter of restoring a fairer system for electing mayors in England, abolishing FPTP introduced in the Elections Act 2022 as a Tory gerrymander, returning instead to a supplementary vote system: a first and second choice. Expect sarcastic comments from the many electoral reformers in the house as the government solemnly explains why FPTP voting is unfair and leads to some grotesque results but only when it's a mayoral contest. Voter support for electoral reform in all-important general elections now stands at 60% its highest ever. People used to believe our system brought Britain strong and stable government, but"

Britain faces heightened risk of a populist right takeover because first-past-the-post elections can convert a minority vote share into disproportionate power. Reform UK has risen in polls to levels that could translate into government despite lacking majority popular support. Labour currently lags and the Conservatives are weakened, increasing electoral volatility. MPs are set to vote to restore the supplementary vote for English mayors, reversing an FPTP change introduced in 2022. Public support for electoral reform in general elections has risen to around 60%, reflecting concerns about representativeness under the current system.

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