"If Labour wins in what has been an over-50% solid red-voting area since the second world war, that will calm nerves on its febrile back (and front) benches. If Labour loses, heavy blame will fall on Keir Starmer for fixing the party's ruling NEC to bar Andy Burnham's selection, ensuring he couldn't challenge for the leadership without a Westminster seat."
"Blocking him is widely seen as grubby Westminster politicking that has weakened, not strengthened, Starmer's grip on the leadership. For many erstwhile supporters that jiggery-pokery was a turning point, as Starmer seemed willing to risk Reform UK scoring another win in order to stop Burnham, though stop Farage has to be Labour's overwhelming priority. The field is a three-way split between Labour, Reform and the Greens, and each can make a good case as to why they will win."
"Greens and Labour fight it out fiercely here, each accusing the other of dirty tactics, of uprooting each other's posters from front gardens and worse. A mass of canvassers has descended. A journalist arriving, as did I, can, as ever, take their pick of doorstep vox pops and shape a conclusion to suit any proposition. The truth is that I am none the wiser about the result after spending time here; my crystal ball is murky."
Next week's by-election in Gorton and Denton could determine internal Labour stability and electoral momentum. The constituency has been a Labour stronghold for over eighty years but faces a three-way contest between Labour, Reform UK and the Greens. Blocking Andy Burnham from standing is widely viewed as a Westminster manoeuvre that weakened Keir Starmer's standing and may influence voter sentiment. Anti-Reform voters form a substantial majority, but uncertainty exists about which candidate can best consolidate that vote. Intense local campaigning and accusations of dirty tactics complicate predictions. Polling suggests Reform becomes hard to beat if it reaches around 40%.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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