Reform UK outperformed both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats in attracting attention during August. Nigel Farage culminated a summer crime campaign by unveiling an illegal immigration strategy at a costly, spectacle-like event that continued to attract donors. Opinion polls have shown Reform leading Labour since April. Illegal immigration ranks among top voter issues, despite limited public understanding of legal versus illegal migration. The rise in small boat crossings since 2018 has intensified concerns, forming a visible symbol of perceived asylum-system failure. These crossings account for just over a third of asylum claims, while many others arrive on visas and later claim asylum.
That suggests the party is continuing to attract donors - helped by opinion polls consistently suggesting that a Farage premiership is possible. Since April, Reform has had a lead over Labour according to these surveys. Research suggests illegal immigration is also among the top issues for voters, although there is evidence that many have a limited understanding of the balance of illegal and legal migration in the UK.
Arguably the rise in small boat crossings since 2018 has been a major factor in crystallizing voters' concerns. It is a very visible, striking, and relatively new form of illegal migration. These arrivals make up just over a third of those claiming asylum in the UK - many others arrive on a visa and then put in a claim. Yet the record numbers of crossings have become emblematic of wider anxiety that the asylum system is not working.
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