"When Badenoch became leader of the Conservative Party just over a year ago the party was still polling higher than Reform, which is often forgotten. A lot changed in 2025. The Conservative Party is often called the most successful political party in the democratic world, and yet its MPs genuinely fear being usurped by Reform UK. That is why the question of Jenrick's future matters."
"There are other layers to this though. Jenrick and Reform UK have had some fairly salty exchanges in the past. Given they have, at least until now, been political opponents, that's perhaps not a surprise. Yet it is still a significant hiccup they would have to explain if he were to defect. For example in August, Nigel Farage posted on X: "Jenrick is a fraud.""
Kemi Badenoch's leadership has coincided with a shift that left Conservative MPs fearing replacement by Reform UK after polling changed in 2025. The Conservative Party retains a reputation for success, yet internal anxiety about Reform's rise intensifies the significance of Robert Jenrick's future. Jenrick's second-place finish in the 2024 leadership contest and effective use of social videos increased his profile. A potential defection to Reform would represent the most senior defection and severely damage the Conservative Party. Past exchanges between Jenrick and Reform figures, including public attacks from Nigel Farage and Zia Yusuf, complicate any plausible defection narrative.
Read at www.bbc.com
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