Heads it's awkward, tails it's awkward for the prime minister

"It feels like crunch time for Angela Rayner. Plenty of folk at Westminster reckon today is the day her fate will be determined. The prime minister told me yesterday he expected the investigation by the independent adviser on ministerial standards to be quick and he thought that was a good thing. That suggests Sir Keir won't prevaricate in offering his own judgement about Sir Laurie Magnus's findings once he himself has them."

"When I spoke to Sir Keir in Glasgow on Thursday, he was talking up a 10bn deal to sell warships to Norway. He talked with an enthusiasm about digital ID cards I had never heard before as a potential tool for tackling illegal immigration. He also talked about tweaks to the implications of the European Convention on Human Rights he's determined to push through. But all of this, inevitably, generates fewer headlines than the conduct of his deputy."

An independent adviser on ministerial standards is due to deliver findings that could determine Angela Rayner's future. The prime minister expects a quick investigation and signals readiness to act on the conclusions without delay. Allowing Rayner to stay would be politically awkward after recent revelations; her departure would prompt immediate questions about who would replace her and whether she would remain deputy leader of the Labour Party. The prime minister has pushed a £10bn warship sale to Norway, advocated digital ID cards to tackle illegal immigration, and proposed tweaks to the implications of the European Convention on Human Rights. Those policy aims are being overshadowed by the controversy.

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