Can Keir survive? Inside the plot to bring down the prime minister

"Whenever you run into trouble, open them in order, the instructions goes. Envelope one says: Blame your predecessor. So he does and it works. The party officials are satisfied. A year later, problems arise again. He opens envelope two. It says: Restructure the organisation. He does a big reshuffle, changes some titles, and again buys himself some time. Finally, another crisis comes."

"Then, even though Mandelson had warned publicly that more embarrassing emails from him to convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein were about to be published, Starmer defended him at prime minister's questions. With his political judgment repeatedly questioned, Labour people turn to his vision for Britain. The problem is they can't identify what the prime minister really believes in. Allies say he doesn't like the V word and has made no secret of being a distinctly non-ideological politician."

"It is becoming increasingly hard to find anybody in the Labour party who will argue that things are going anything other than disastrously for the government. They fear that attempts to deal with the multiple difficulties faced by the prime minister over the past year many of them self-inflicted errors such as the winter fuel duty decision, the freebies row and the handling of welfare cuts have instead unleashed more chaos."

A joke among Labour MPs compares crisis responses to three envelopes instructing leaders to blame predecessors, restructure the organisation, and prepare new envelopes. Many MPs believe Keir Starmer has already used the first two. The government faces mounting internal criticism and is widely seen as performing disastrously. Efforts to address problems have often produced more chaos, with self-inflicted errors such as the winter fuel duty decision, the freebies row and the handling of welfare cuts. Starmer appointed Peter Mandelson despite ministerial and alleged security concerns. Even after Mandelson warned of forthcoming emails linked to Jeffrey Epstein, Starmer defended him at prime minister's questions. Colleagues question Starmer's political judgment and cannot identify a clear ideological vision.

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