Andy Burnham faces tricky run to win Labour crown

"A marble sits at the top of a very long, elaborate and twisting run right now. If - and it's a big if - it trundles all the way to the bottom, Andy Burnham might become prime minister. But hang on a minute, let's not get ahead of ourselves. That marble might not even set off down the run, or might fly off spectacularly halfway down."

"If Burnham does say he wants to run, he has to ask the Labour Party's National Executive Committee for permission. This body, the party's rule book sets out, must give its "express permission" before directly-elected mayors can seek nomination as Labour candidates for elections to the Westminster Parliament. So the party could turn around and say no - on the grounds that a mayoral election would be expensive and potentially politically tricky."

"Plus, frankly, there are those within Labour who would rather he didn't come back to Westminster, such has been, as they see it, the gratuitous nature of his manoeuvring for the top job. But it is also true that plenty within the Labour movement think he could be something of a saviour for a party and a government that are really struggling."

Andy Burnham faces a complex and uncertain path to returning to Westminster and potentially challenging for Labour leadership. A by-election in Greater Manchester presents a local opportunity following an MP's medical departure, but Labour's National Executive Committee must grant "express permission" for a directly-elected mayor to stand. The party could refuse on cost or political-risk grounds, and some Labour figures oppose his return because of perceived manoeuvring. Supporters see him as a possible saviour for a struggling party and government. If rejected, Burnham would retain a high profile and could choose to challenge the prime minister from outside Parliament.

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