Why are primary school numbers in London down? Decline in pupils risk closures

"According to the Education Policy Institute, London may be worst hit as a declining birthrate coincides with families moving away from the capital or sending their children to private schools. In fact, nine out of ten local UK authorities predicted to have the most significant drop in pupil numbers are in the capital, with places such as Westminster, Lambeth and Southwark being among the worst hit."

"According to Jon Andrews, the EPI's head of analysis, Schools with falling pupil numbers face increasing financial pressures, which can ultimately threaten their long-term viability. This issue emerged first in London, where enrolment declines began earlier than in the rest of the country. While a birth rate peak around 2010 prompted the opening and expansion of new schools in the following years, a subsequent decline has resulted in emptier classrooms over time."

"The primary driver expected to contribute to fewer pupils in schools is a declining birth rate, a trend that is not unique to the UK. This year, it was reported that the fertility rate in the UK had dropped to 1.41 births per woman, which is considered a record low. Although the UK's population is still increasing because older generations are living longer, low birth rates mean fewer children are being born."

Plummeting birth rates and demographic shifts are set to reduce pupil numbers across UK primary schools, potentially putting roughly 800 schools at risk of closure within five years. London faces the sharpest declines as falling births coincide with families leaving the capital or choosing private education; nine of the ten local authorities with the largest projected drops are in London. Earlier enrolment peaks around 2010 prompted school openings, but subsequent declines have produced emptier classrooms. Shrinking rolls increase financial pressure and threaten long-term viability. Contributing factors include a record-low fertility rate of 1.41, costly childcare, delayed childbearing, and rising childfree intentions.

Read at www.standard.co.uk