"And yet, if the polls are to be believed, the United Kingdom is in a very interesting position. By the end of May, it is likely that the largest party in three of the four constituent countries of the UK will want the larger polity in which they operate to break apart. The SNP is currently the overwhelming favourite to have the most seats in the Scottish parliament in the upcoming elections."
"In Wales, there was polling last week suggesting that the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru was on course to be the largest party inside the Welsh Senedd, just four seats short of a majority. Even more astonishing is that the Welsh Green party was also predicted to get 11 of the 96 seats. This would mean that there would be a majority of parties inside the Welsh parliament whose official policy was for Welsh independence."
"But of all the things you can call the Starmer administration, introspective is not one of them. I know from conversations with Labour people that they see the support for the pro-independence Plaid and Greens in Wales as a kicking of the establishment rather than an endorsement of breaking up the UK. They point to polling regarding Welsh independence that has constantly hovered around the 30% mark in recent years."
Polling indicates nationalist parties are poised to be the largest in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland by the end of May. The SNP leads in Scotland, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Greens show strong gains in Wales, and Sinn Fein currently tops Northern Ireland. A potential Welsh Senedd with a pro-independence majority is suggested by recent projections. The Labour government does not appear to be reassessing strategy; it interprets Welsh nationalist gains as an anti-establishment protest rather than explicit endorsement of breakup. Polling on Welsh independence has generally remained around thirty percent in recent years.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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