Rail fares in England are expected to increase by 5.8% next year if the government follows the usual method of adding one percentage point to July's RPI reading. July's RPI came in at 4.8%, 0.2 points above forecasts. Regulated fares account for about half of journeys and include many season tickets, off-peak long-distance fares and flexible urban tickets. Passenger groups warn that such increases risk pricing out some travellers amid rising food and travel costs. The Department for Transport will update changes later this year, and unregulated fares are expected to rise similarly.
Rail ticket increases are usually calculated by adding one percentage point to July's inflation reading on the retail prices index (RPI), which came in 0.2 points above forecasts on Wednesday at 4.8%. The government has not yet confirmed how it will calculate rail fare increases for 2026 regulated fares, which account for about half of rail journeys. They would rise by 5.8% if ministers follow the pattern of last year, when they rose by 4.6% in March one percentage point above the RPI reading from July 2024.
This would be higher than the 5.6% increase that had been predicted, after both the consumer and retail prices index measures of inflation rose more than expected in July, fuelled by higher food prices and travel costs, particularly air fares. Before the publication of July's inflation figures, passenger groups had warned that such fare increases risked pricing out some passengers, at a time of a squeeze on consumers' wallets, including rising food prices.
Regulated fares include season tickets on most commuter journeys, off-peak returns on long-distance routes and flexible tickets for urban rail. A 5.8% increase in rail fares would result in the cost of an annual season ticket for travel between Gloucester and Birmingham rising by 312 from 5,384 to 5,696, while an annual season ticket between Woking and London would climb by 247 from 4,260 to 4,507.
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