
"It's no secret that the Toronto Blue Jays have been much better than originally expected. They hold the best record in the American League, they are tied for the league lead in comeback wins, they've already crushed their preseason win total, and everyone seems to be showing positive regression all at once. What is the biggest driver of the Blue Jays' success this season?"
"A question on many Blue Jays fans' minds is whether the success of this team is rooted in positive regression from the core group, such as the drivers like Vladdy, Bo, and George and Kirk, for example. Or, does it come down to the unexpected contributors such as Heineman, Straw, Clement, and more? In short, it seems like too close a call to make, as the answer switches game by game."
"In terms of the core group, every single one of them is outperforming their numbers from last year. The one that's leading the charge, though, is Springer, who has reversed the aging curve. Currently, Springer (going into Friday night) is batting .297 with 28 home runs. If he finishes batting .300 or better to close out 2025, it would mark the first time in his career where he is batting over .300... and he's doing this at 35 years old."
Toronto Blue Jays hold the best record in the American League, are tied for the league lead in comeback wins, and have exceeded their preseason win total. The roster shows widespread positive regression. The question is whether success stems from core players (Vladdy, Bo, George, and Kirk) outperforming expectations or from unexpected contributors such as Heineman, Straw, Clement and others. A fan poll reported 60.3% favoring core regression and 39.7% favoring unexpected contributors. Each core player is outperforming last season, led by George Springer, who is batting .297 with 28 home runs and could finish above .300 at age 35.
Read at Jays Journal
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