"In order to return to the Fall Classic, it will once again take some Blue Jays having career years, others having bounce-back campaigns, and a bit of luck just for an opportunity to sniff a championship. If the planets all align, maybe magic can happen twice."
"To determine who the Blue Jays' biggest bounce-back candidates are, I averaged each player's ZiPS and Steamer projections, minus their fWAR (FanGraphs WAR) from 2025. An important caveat: Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage had the highest projection improvements year-over-year, but with Bieber's return date uncertain, I left him off the list."
"This was well before Max Scherzer impressed in his Spring Training debut last weekend, firing four innings of no-hit ball against the Philadelphia Phillies. By all accounts, he's clear of the thumb issues that caused him to miss three months on the IL last year, and Scherzer has a clean bill of health for Opening Day."
The Blue Jays fell short of winning the World Series despite coming close last year. To return to the Fall Classic, the team needs career years from some players, bounce-back performances from others, and favorable circumstances. While projection models show some uncertainty about the team's ability to repeat as American League champions, analysis of ZiPS and Steamer projections reveals which players are positioned for significant improvement. Max Scherzer emerges as a top bounce-back candidate, projected to gain 0.55 fWAR after missing three months with thumb injuries in 2025. Now healthy heading into the season, the 41-year-old pitcher appears ready to contribute meaningfully.
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