Blue Jays: Will Brendon Little's revampled fastball get him back on track?

"Before the All-Star break, he had a 2.03 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 44 ⅓ innings pitched. Afterwards? A 4.88 ERA with 17 walks in just 24 innings. The answer is in the heatmap of Little's pitches: batters clued in on the fact that everything he threw was in the bottom half of the strike zone."

"Hitters were swinging at pitches outside the zone against Little roughly 45% of the time in April, but by October, that number had dropped to around 30%. Their overall swing percentage declined from above 50% to 40%, yet they actually made more contact when swinging at the pitches he did throw in the strike zone."

"He's throwing a new four-seam fastball in the upper nineties, well over four mph faster than the sinker he threw 46% of the time in 2025. This could be a game-changer if it's here to stay. Enter the new four-seam fastball that Little has been throwing up in the zone with serious velocity this spring."

Brendon Little faced significant struggles in the second half of last season, dropping from a 2.03 ERA before the All-Star break to 4.88 ERA afterward. Hitters discovered that Little threw predominantly in the bottom half of the strike zone, allowing them to adjust their approach accordingly. Swing rates against Little declined from 45% to 30% on pitches outside the zone, while contact rates improved on in-zone pitches. His first-pitch strike percentage also declined considerably. This offseason, Little developed a new four-seam fastball in the upper nineties, significantly faster than his previous sinker. This new pitch aims to elevate the strike zone and force hitters to recalibrate their sight level, potentially reversing his late-season decline.

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