"None of Scherzer's numbers have been good down the stretch. In four games in September, opponents have hit .348/.408/.623 with a 1.031 OPS and .444 BABIP. Specifically though, all season long he has struggled to get out of the first inning. He's pitched to a 12.96 ERA, giving up 24 runs in 16.2 innings pitched. While his strikeout numbers remain good (17 K's) he's allowed 33 hits and opponents have a .456 BABIP against him. In September alone, he's allowed 15 runs in that opening inning."
"Scherzer has also not been able to put guys away in two-strike counts. Once again, while his overall numbers in these counts aren't terrible, hitters have a .316 BABIP in those situations. In September specifically, Scherzer has been leaning on his four-seam fastball in those counts which hasn't yielded the best results."
"Max Scherzer's inability to record outs in 2-strike counts has played a significant role in his recent struggles...In 4 starts this month, opponents are hitting .341/.420/.591 in those situations vs Scherzer -- and he's having to rely far too much on his FB. #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/uITny5EMID- Thomas Hall (@Hall_Thomas_) September 25, 2025"
Max Scherzer has delivered strong strikeout totals but has two persistent problems: allowing runs in the first inning and failing to finish hitters in two-strike counts. He has a 12.96 first-inning ERA, surrendering 24 runs in 16.2 innings and a .456 BABIP against in those frames, including 15 first-inning runs in September. Opponents hit .348/.408/.623 in four September games with a 1.031 OPS. Hitters own a .316 BABIP in two-strike situations and Scherzer has leaned on his four-seam fastball in those counts with poor results, contributing to recent decline.
Read at Jays Journal
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