"Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit's expiration. For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k."
"Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters."
Tesla delivered 418,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420,000 and above a whisper number of 415,000. The reported 16% year-over-year decline is largely distorted by the timing of the tax-credit expiration, which pulled roughly 55,000 units into September. Normalizing for that timing implies December deliveries of about 415,000 and a consistent quarter-over-quarter decline near 5%, an improvement from roughly 13% declines in March and June 2025. Q4 overall may show a notable improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share after recent multi-quarter share losses.
Read at TESLARATI
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