"The contract wins are real. Nebius has secured a multi-year deal with Microsoft worth up to $19.4 billion and a $3 billion infrastructure agreement with Meta, with a confirmed backlog exceeding $20 billion. The AI Cloud segment grew by more than 400% year-over-year in Q3 2025, reaching sold-out capacity."
"Management is targeting $7 billion to $9 billion in annualized run-rate revenue by end of 2026, up from $551 million at year-end 2025. That is a roughly 6x jump in twelve months, contingent entirely on execution."
"Nebius spent $2.06 billion on capex in Q4 alone and is planning $16 billion to $20 billion in total capex for 2026 across nine new data center sites. Free cash flow was negative $1.23 billion in Q4."
Nebius Group trades at $93 with 10.5% year-to-date gains and Reddit sentiment rising from bearish 35 to bullish 72, driven by substantial AI infrastructure contracts. The company secured a $19.4 billion multi-year Microsoft deal and $3 billion Meta agreement, with total backlog exceeding $20 billion. AI Cloud segment revenue grew over 400% year-over-year in Q3 2025 at sold-out capacity. Management targets $7-9 billion annualized revenue by end-2026, representing roughly 6x growth from $551 million at year-end 2025. However, Q4 revenue of $227.7 million missed consensus by 7% due to supply constraints, triggering sentiment collapse from 95 to 35. Bears focus on capital structure concerns, with $2.06 billion capex in Q4 alone and planned $16-20 billion capex for 2026 across nine data centers, resulting in negative $1.23 billion free cash flow.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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