"Expected goals (xG) is a metric used to determine how likely a player is to score a chance and to calculate how many goals a team is expected to score in a match. The metric was invented in 2012 by Opta's Sam Green and has become commonplace across football analytics. In xG, every shot a player has is given a score between zero and one."
"This information is calculated from Opta's historical data from nearly one million shots. The data model then generates a calculation on the percentage chance the player is likely to have scored in the same scenario. Other factors taken into consideration include distance, angles, goalkeeper position, the positions of other players, shot type, pattern of play and the previous action. For instance, a chance that has an xG of 0.2 means that a player had a 20% chance of scoring from that opportunity."
Expected goals (xG) assigns every shot a probability between zero and one, estimating how likely a given chance is to result in a goal. The model was created in 2012 by Opta's Sam Green using nearly one million historical shots to calculate scoring probabilities. Calculations incorporate distance, angle, goalkeeper position, positions of other players, shot type, pattern of play and the previous action. Individual chance xG values are summed to evaluate player or team scoring performance over matches or seasons. The metric faces criticism from some fans and managers but is widely used by clubs for match analysis and recruitment.
Read at www.bbc.com
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