"We want to get a sense of where every national team stands ahead of next summer, so we've looked at every country that still hasn't been eliminated from World Cup contention, and then ranked them by equal parts performance and results. As a proxy for talent, this ranking uses the average, estimated transfer value of each player on each team's most recent roster from the site Transfermarkt."
"And for results, we'll use the World Football Elo Ratings -- a system that awards or subtracts points every time a team plays a game, based on the final scoreline, the location of the match, the quality of the opponent, and the competitiveness of the match. Then we've normalized those numbers to make them equivalent, added them up, and produced what you see below."
The ranking assesses all 88 national teams still in World Cup contention by equal parts talent and recent results. Talent is proxied by the average estimated transfer value of each player on the most recent roster according to Transfermarkt. Results are measured with World Football Elo Ratings, which adjust points based on final scoreline, match location, opponent quality, and competitiveness. The two normalized metrics are combined to produce an overall ranking. The expansion to 48 teams and the Nations League have complicated qualifying paths for some federations, creating multiple qualification routes for certain teams.
Read at ESPN.com
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