"Despite 12 places and 27 points separating Borussia Dortmund and Mainz in the Bundesliga, Niko Kovac said his team's upcoming clash was far from a foregone conclusion. Dortmund sit second in the top-flight after a fine recent run of form and are within six points of leaders Bayern Munich ahead of welcoming Mainz to Westfalenstadion on Friday. And according to the Opta supercomputer, BVB have a slight chance of overhauling Vincent Kompany's team at the summit to win their first top-flight title since 2011-12."
"Indeed, Dortmund finished top of the pile in just 2.6% of its season simulations, with Bayern romping to a 35th Bundesliga crown in a whopping 97.4% of those scenarios. However, BVB are still in with a chance of another trophy after reaching the last 16 of the Champions League, with a two-legged tie against Atalanta to come later this month."
"The Bundesliga giants will face RB Leipzig and Bayern either side of their European commitments, and Kovac acknowledged the importance of his team's upcoming fixtures. "We now have five important matches in two weeks," Kovac said. "Mainz is the most important game for me because a win will help us to prepare for the upcoming games.""
Borussia Dortmund sit second in the Bundesliga, six points behind leaders Bayern Munich, and face Mainz at Westfalenstadion. Opta simulations give Dortmund a 2.6% chance of finishing top, with Bayern at 97.4%. Dortmund advanced to the Champions League last 16 and will play Atalanta in a two-legged tie this month, with Bundesliga fixtures against RB Leipzig and Bayern surrounding those matches. Mainz have improved markedly under Urs Fischer, collecting 13 points in six Bundesliga games in 2026 and climbing to 14th after earlier being bottom of the table.
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