"A weakening La Niña and a strengthening Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) could finally bring relief to the snow-starved western United States in February, according to the latest 30-day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). After an underwhelming start to winter, when much of the West struggled with below-average snowfall, forecasters now see signs of a pattern shift that could favor colder, wetter weather across parts of the region. While uncertainty remains, long-range models signal that February might deliver the snowfall many ski areas and water managers have been waiting for."
"La Niña conditions remain in place, with the Niño 3.4 index registering at -0.8°C, but subsurface ocean data show warm water pushing eastward-a sign of a likely transition to an ENSO-neutral phase by early spring. This shift, combined with a strengthening MJO signal moving into the Western Hemisphere, could help energize the Pacific storm track, especially across the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. NOAA forecasters now favor below-normal temperatures across much of the northern and central U.S., with the highest confidence over the Northern High Plains."
La Niña conditions persist with the Niño 3.4 index near -0.8°C while subsurface warm water pushes east, indicating a likely transition to ENSO-neutral by early spring. A strengthening Madden-Julian Oscillation moving into the Western Hemisphere could energize the Pacific storm track and favor increased storm activity across the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. NOAA favors below-normal temperatures across much of the northern and central U.S., with the greatest confidence over the Northern High Plains. The Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies have elevated odds for above-normal precipitation, while the Southwest and southern California are expected to remain relatively warm and dry.
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