"NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued a dual ENSO Alert on March 12: a La Niña Advisory and an El Niño Watch simultaneously. A shift to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected within the next month, with neutral likely to hold through May-July 2026. After that, El Niño carries a 62% chance of developing by June-August and is expected to persist through at least the end of 2026."
"Subsurface ocean temperatures across the Pacific have been rising steadily, a large reservoir of warm water building at depth that could fuel El Niño development later this year. That subsurface heat is one of the main reasons forecasters are taking the El Niño threat seriously."
"There is roughly a one-in-three chance El Niño reaches "strong" status by October-December 2026, defined as a Niño-3.4 temperature anomaly of +1.5°C or higher. It's also worth noting that spring is historically the trickiest time to forecast ENSO."
La Niña, the dominant climate pattern for the past year, is rapidly weakening and transitioning toward neutral conditions by late spring 2026. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued simultaneous La Niña Advisory and El Niño Watch alerts in March. Subsurface Pacific ocean temperatures are rising steadily, creating a warm-water reservoir that could fuel El Niño development. El Niño carries a 62% chance of forming by June-August 2026 and is expected to persist through year-end. Current atmospheric conditions still reflect La Niña characteristics, though these signals are fading. Forecasters estimate roughly a one-in-three chance El Niño reaches strong status by late 2026, though spring forecasting remains inherently uncertain.
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