AI investment is increasingly framed as a “picks and shovels” opportunity focused on physical infrastructure rather than AI models. Data centers, chips, and electricity are presented as the safer targets, with talent demand shifting toward plumbers and electricians. Nvidia and Oracle are cited as infrastructure-related major players. Oracle’s large AI data center buildout, including Stargate in Abilene, Texas, has been financed through highly leveraged arrangements. After a $300 billion deal with OpenAI in September 2025, Oracle’s stock surged sharply, but later fell more than 43%. Credit default swaps have risen and the debt rating hovers just above junk status, while liabilities exceed $160 billion.
"The safer bet, we're told, lies not in the models themselves but in AI's physical infrastructure: data centers, chips, and electricity. "The Real AI Talent War Is for Plumbers and Electricians," declared a January headline in Wired."
"In the roughly 10 months since September 2025, when Oracle signed a $300 billion deal with OpenAI that sent its stock soaring 36% in a single day, briefly making Ellison the world's richest man, the company's shares have fallen more than 43%, wiping out those gains. Meanwhile, the market for Oracle's credit default swaps, which allow investors to bet on the possibility that the company could miss bond payments, has surged as its debt rating hovers just above junk status."
"Since Oracle began building out Stargate, its sprawling data center campus in Abilene, Texas, the company has faced growing scrutiny over the highly leveraged financing behind both the project itself and its broader AI data center buildout. The scale of the risk Oracle is taking is increasingly visible on its balance sheet. The company now carries more than $160 billion in outstanding liabilities-"
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