"Probability expressed as a percentage is a value between 0% and 100%. If there is a 0% probability that something happens, then the thing is impossible. If there is 100% probability that something happens, then the thing is definite. This uses words to describe a number. Now turn it around. What probability do you use to describe the words?"
"If something is unlikely, what are the chances that something occurs? Adam Kucharski made a quiz that lets you assign probability to common words used to express probability. Then compare against what others answered. See also: the distributions of likelihood and the CIA rendition from the 1990s."
Probability ranges from 0% (impossible) to 100% (definite). Verbal probability expressions translate to numerical percentages, but everyday interpretations vary. A quiz lets users assign numerical probabilities to common verbal expressions and compare individual answers to group distributions. Those distributions reveal how words like "unlikely" or "definite" are perceived across respondents. Comparing contemporary responses with historical mappings, such as a notable CIA rendition from the 1990s, provides context. Such comparisons can improve clarity in communication, risk assessment, and decision-making when verbal labels are used to convey uncertainty.
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