Why Rocket Lab's Sky-High Valuation Is a Big Risk in 2026
Briefly

Why Rocket Lab's Sky-High Valuation Is a Big Risk in 2026
"Rocket Lab ( NASDAQ:RKLB ) stock climbed about 30% in one week in December following reports of a planned SpaceX initial public offering in 2026 at a valuation of up to $1.5 trillion. The news renewed investor interest in space stocks, with Rocket Lab shares rising 174% over the full year. The company also advanced its launch business, completing 21 Electron missions in 2025, a new record."
"Rocket Lab has a lot riding on its reusable Neutron rocket , now in final development stages. The vehicle is expected to arrive at its Virginia launch site in the first quarter of 2026, with a debut flight to follow after testing. With the Neutron rocket set for debut this year, Rocket Lab could access larger payload markets and boost revenue."
"This medium-lift option targets constellation deployments and heavier payloads, unlike the small-lift Electron, which has served as the core launcher with prices averaging $8.4 million per flight. Neutron contracts are priced at $50 million to $55 million each, far above Electron's fees, and could enable higher launch rates. If Rocket Lab's launch cadence scales, analysts see potential for significant revenue growth, as Neutron's larger capacity - 13,000 kilograms for low-Earth orbit (LEO) - opens up new mission opportunities."
Rocket Lab's stock surged after reports of a potential SpaceX IPO, with shares up 174% for the year and a one-week 30% jump in December. The company completed a record 21 Electron missions in 2025. The reusable Neutron rocket, in final development, is expected to arrive at the Virginia launch site in Q1 2026, with a first flight after testing, and offers 13,000 kg to LEO. Neutron contracts price at $50–$55 million versus Electron's ~$8.4 million. Analysts forecast revenue could exceed $1.2 billion by 2027, but repeated delays to Neutron raise execution and revenue risks.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
Unable to calculate read time
[
|
]