
"The agency has been tracking the Van Allen Probe A and predicts it will reenter the atmosphere at around 7.45pm ET, though the exact timing could vary by up to 24 hours. Because the spacecraft is traveling thousands of miles per hour and the reentry window spans nearly a full day, scientists cannot predict exactly where debris may fall."
"The spacecraft's mission ended in 2019, and scientists initially expected it to fall back to Earth in 2034. However, those calculations were made before the current solar cycle proved far more active than expected. In 2024, scientists confirmed the sun had reached its solar maximum, triggering intense space weather that increased atmospheric drag on the spacecraft and accelerated its descent toward Earth."
"NASA estimates the risk of anyone being injured by falling debris is extremely low, about 0.02 percent, largely because oceans cover roughly 70 percent of Earth's surface. Any pieces that survive reentry are therefore most likely to splash down in open water rather than land in or near populated areas."
The Van Allen Probe A satellite, weighing 1,300 pounds, is predicted to reenter Earth's atmosphere around 7:45 PM ET on Tuesday, with a potential 24-hour timing variation. Most of the spacecraft will burn up during reentry, though some components may survive. The risk of injury is extremely low at approximately 1 in 4,200, as oceans cover 70 percent of Earth's surface. The spacecraft's mission ended in 2019, with scientists originally expecting reentry in 2034. However, the current solar cycle proved more active than anticipated, reaching solar maximum in 2024 and increasing atmospheric drag. The US Space Force continues tracking the probe, with reentry predictions expected to be refined as new data arrives.
Read at Mail Online
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