"If you've ever glanced at your phone's weather app to check the day's forecast or to help plan for an upcoming storm, you've probably run across a scenario where you see an outrageous forecast. It happened to me earlier this week when I noticed my app was predicting more than 13 inches of snow for the Charlotte, NC area. Not only would that be a historic storm, but it would also be fairly apocalyptic for an area where even an inch of snow is a rarity."
"To understand the problem, you need to understand how these apps work. Google Weather gets its information from "an internal forecasting system that utilizes weather models and observations from global weather agencies." Similarly, data sources that include The Weather Channel and the National Weather Service/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Also: My 5 essential hurricane-tracking apps That information is perfectly fine and is the same data professional meteorologists rely on. The problem is what the apps do with this data."
"Most weather apps use computer models or even AI to interpret the data they're given. That analysis can sometimes go astray, and without a human intervening, the predictions get pushed to the public. Further complicating matters is that weather apps can sometimes show results from a single, outlying model run rather than an ensemble, or a combination of many runs that meteorologists use."
Phone weather apps draw on the same global data sources used by professionals, including internal forecasting systems, The Weather Channel, and NOAA. Errors arise not from the raw observations but from how automated systems interpret them. Apps commonly use computer models or AI to analyze data, may show a single outlying model run rather than an ensemble, and often operate without human intervention. Those practices can produce implausible or extreme forecasts for locations unaccustomed to certain weather. Forecasts may mellow as models converge, so consult a trusted local meteorologist for more accurate, contextual predictions.
Read at ZDNET
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