"The number of Chinese scientists taking on leadership roles in international science projects is growing rapidly. They now lead more than half of all research projects with the United Kingdom, and are expected to lead an equal number of projects with Europe and with the United States in the next couple of years, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences last week. Hongjun Xiang, a physicist at Fudan University in Shanghai, China, says the projections are consistent with what he has observed in the country, particularly in fields such as physics and engineering. But China needs to strengthen its leadership capabilities in disruptive basic research, "as Nobel-level original breakthroughs remain rare", he adds."
"To understand how scientific leadership is changing, researchers analysed authorship data from nearly six million scientific publications. The team analysed 'author contribution' statements on journal manuscripts, in which each author's role is described. When such statements weren't available, the team developed a model that could predict leadership roles based on author experience, citation histories and the ideas researchers brought from their previous work, says James Evans, a co-author and computational sociologist at the University of Chicago in Illinois."
"Researchers who conceived, designed and guided the project or offered mentorship were classified as leaders; first-year students, people providing tech support and those performing experiments under direction were considered followers. From there, Evans and his colleagues devised two parameters to assess the changes in scientific leadership in bilateral partnerships. Lead share describes the number of people in leadership roles from a given country. Lead premium is the ratio of leaders to followers on the paper."
Authorship data from nearly six million scientific publications were analysed using author-contribution statements and a predictive model based on author experience, citation histories and prior ideas when statements were missing. Leadership roles were defined as those who conceived, designed, guided projects, or offered mentorship; followers included first-year students, technical support and experiment performers under direction. Two metrics—lead share and lead premium—were used to measure national leadership in bilateral collaborations. China's lead share in US–China collaborations rose from 30% in 2010 to 45% in 2023, and Chinese scientists now lead over half of projects with the United Kingdom. A need to strengthen disruptive basic-research leadership is noted, as Nobel-level original breakthroughs remain rare.
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