Actually, we are going to tell you the odds of recovering New Glenn's second launch
Briefly

Actually, we are going to tell you the odds of recovering New Glenn's second launch
"The only comparison available is SpaceX, with its Falcon 9 rocket. The company made its first attempt at a powered descent of the Falcon 9 into the ocean during its sixth launch in September 2013. On the vehicle's ninth flight, it successfully made a controlled ocean landing. SpaceX made its first drone ship landing attempt in January 2015, a failure. Finally, on the vehicle's 20th launch, SpaceX successfully put the Falcon 9 down on land,"
"SpaceX did not attempt to land every one of these 23 flights, but the company certainly experienced a number of failures as it worked to safely bring back an orbital rocket onto a small platform out at sea. Blue Origin's engineers, some of whom worked at SpaceX at the time, have the benefit of those learnings. But it is still a very, very difficult thing to do on the second flight of a new rocket."
SpaceX's Falcon 9 required multiple attempts and many flights to achieve controlled ocean, land, and drone-ship recoveries, with key milestones occurring between the ninth and 23rd flights. Blue Origin's New Glenn aims for rapid reusability to reduce costs, but first-stage manufacturing exceeds $100 million, making reuse necessary for break-even. The New Glenn booster "Never Tell Me The Odds" is planned for refurbishment ahead of a third flight on a nominal 90-day timeline, yet historical refurbishments have taken much longer, with SpaceX's first reflown booster requiring 356 days.
Read at Ars Technica
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