"This time last year, the world was gripped by reports that an incoming, nearly 200-feet-wide asteroid had a tiny, tiny chance of hitting the Earth in 2032. The sigh of relief that we weren't on course for a Don't Look Up scenario was palpable when, upon closer inspection, astronomers determined that the space rock, named 2024 YR4, wouldn't hit our planet after all. Instead, they calculated, it might hit the moon in 2032with a probability of about 4 percent."
"astronomers found that if the asteroid does hit the moon, it will release an optical flash that will be visible from Earth, and hours of infrared afterglow will follow the impact. It would be the most energetic lunar impact event ever recorded in human history, they wrote. Astronomers previously estimated that if 2024 YR4 hits the moon, it could form a crater about one kilometer wide and release some 100 million metric tons of material, some of which could reach Earth."
An incoming, nearly 200-foot-wide asteroid named 2024 YR4 carries a roughly 4 percent chance of striking the Moon in 2032. If an impact occurs, the collision would produce a bright optical flash visible from Earth followed by hours of infrared afterglow. The impact could excavate a crater about one kilometer across and eject roughly 100 million metric tons of material, some of which could reach Earth. That event would be the most energetic lunar impact observed by humans and would provide an unprecedented planetary-impact data set.
Read at www.scientificamerican.com
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