"The sun is shining, the mountains are shrouded in a purple haze, and, at least for the time being, the local nine are both active and undefeated. Let's all take a breath. Really drink it in. Because if the spreadsheets that rule this wonderful game in our age of information are to be believed, this is as good as it gets."
"The question, whispered in the silence between the pop of a mitt and the crack of a bat, is far more banal: Are we just doing this again? Seriously, are we strapping ourselves in for another joylessride to the exact middle of the road? Are we staring down the barrel of another season of .500 baseball a campaign that promises fleeting moments of possibility but ultimately delivers an astounding, almost impressive, amount of nada?"
"But when you log onto FanGraphs and let the cold, unfeeling algorithms wash over you, the message is consistent. It is a chorus of robotic voices singing in perfect harmony: Mid. It's actually startling how unanimous the shrug is. Every single projection system looks at this roster and sees a team destined to finish with the baseball equivalent of a C grade."
Spring training in Scottsdale brings optimism, sunny weather, and the familiar scent of cut grass and sunscreen. Early excitement coexists with skepticism as statistical projection systems unanimously rate the roster as average. Most algorithms forecast a middling season and a near-.500 record despite some new players and depth. FanGraphs' main projection is the only model predicting a winning record, estimating 82.4 wins. Questions remain whether the team will repeat past patterns of moderate competitiveness that produce fleeting thrills but ultimately settle into mediocrity. The season's promise contrasts with analytic expectations of another middle-of-the-road campaign.
Read at www.mercurynews.com
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