"The reality is that we will probably know the outcome by the time the first results drop. The majority of the people who are going to vote have already voted; Election Day turnout will be a small fraction of the total. If, as some polls suggest, at least 55 percent of D4 voters (and by some estimates, as many as 60 percent of those who will bother to cast a ballot) want to see Engardio removed, that will show up in the first drop."
"The next step is going to be fascinating. The Department of Elections must certify the vote by Oct. 16, and if he is recalled, Engardio must vacate his office immediately. If the DOE finalizes and certifies the results earlier, he will have to vacate earlier. Or, if the outcome looks clear, Engardio could accept that he won't win and resign shortly after Election Day."
"All of this will be happening just as the supes will be starting to discuss the profound changes to the West Side that are part of Mayor Daniel Lurie's new zoning plan. The supervisor from D4 could key to what might be a close vote. If Engardio is still on the board when that vote comes (because he won the recall of because the vote hasn't been certified) he's clearly on Lurie's side."
Polls open at 7am in District Four, but the majority of ballots have already been cast by mail and many have been counted. The Department of Elections will post initial results, including mailed ballots, around 8:45 pm and update hourly thereafter. Polling suggests 55–60 percent of likely voters favor removing Engardio, which would appear in the first results; a ten-point deficit would be insurmountable with limited Election Day turnout. The Department of Elections must certify results by Oct. 16; a certified recall would require Engardio to vacate immediately, though he could also resign if defeat appears certain. The timing overlaps with a critical West Side zoning vote under Mayor Daniel Lurie, and the District Four supervisor could be pivotal.
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