The Xavier Becerra Surge Is Turning Into a Pile-on

"During the last month, a very sleepy California gubernatorial contest has come alive - and gone sideways. Before Eric Swalwell's implosion over sexual-misconduct allegations, much of the chatter about the election focused on the possibility of Democrats being "locked out" of the general election under California's top-two primary system. Then the big question became the fate of Swalwell's abandoned supporters. Might Tom Steyer's vast money machine help him attract enough Swalwell supporters to take a commanding lead in the race? Or would newly available voters push Katie Porter back to the front of the pack? Or would a sudden vacuum in the center-left lane of the race present an opportunity to one of the contest's numerous candidates polling in the single digits?"

"It's now pretty clear the answers to these questions are no, no, and yes. And the candidate who has most benefited is former California attorney general and Biden administration HHS secretary Xavier Becerra. Polls are now confirming that the Becerra surge isn't just a rumor or theory. Five recent surveys (from Evitarus, Mellman Group, Kreate Strategies, Emerson, and Binder Research) all show Becerra roughly even with Republican Steve Hilton with around a fifth of the vote, well ahead of Steyer and doubling Porter's support."

"His rise appears to be attributable to a long résumé, a safely Democratic Establishment profile, and Latino identity (in March, the top tier of the gubernatorial field was so uniformly white that a debate was canceled when no Black, Latino, or Asian candidates qualified). But now that the odds favor a Becerra-Hilton general election, the once lightly regarded Democratic front-runner is drawing sharp criticism from everywhere, as Politico reported after a recent candidate debate:"

"Xavier Becerra took hit after hit Tuesday night, absorbing the full front-runner treatment as rivals from both parties piled on. For two hours in a nationally televised debate on CNN, Tom"

A California gubernatorial race shifted rapidly after Eric Swalwell’s collapse over sexual-misconduct allegations. Early uncertainty centered on whether Democrats could be locked out under the top-two primary system and which candidates would absorb Swalwell’s abandoned supporters. The outcomes became no, no, and yes, with Xavier Becerra emerging as the biggest beneficiary. Multiple recent polls show Becerra roughly even with Republican Steve Hilton at about one-fifth of the vote, far ahead of Tom Steyer and about double Katie Porter’s support. The surge is linked to a long résumé, a safely Democratic establishment profile, and Latino identity, amid a field that previously lacked diversity. With a likely Becerra-Hilton general election, Becerra has drawn sharp criticism from rivals from both parties during a nationally televised debate.

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