Ukraine's GUR intelligence suggests that Russia believes it needs to end the war with Ukraine by 2026. This urgency stems from concerns about its long-term global competitiveness against the US and China. Major General Vadym Skibitsky stated that Kremlin forecasts indicate ongoing conflict could limit Russia’s influence, confining it to a regional status. These forecasts draw from federal agencies and project scenarios as far as 2045, emphasizing the seriousness of Russia's strategic outlook as peace efforts continue amidst ongoing conflict.
The Russian Federation has clearly defined in these documents that the Ukrainian issue must be resolved by 2026. If the war continues for another five to 10 years, Russia will never be able to catch up and reach the same level as the United States and China.
If the war drags on, its relevance could be relegated just to Eastern Europe. The Russian Federation clearly understands this today, which is why it foresees this in the future.
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