The Baltics urgently need a de-escalation mechanism; Belarus can help

Military tensions around the Baltics have escalated amid spillover risks from the Ukraine war. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, all NATO members, report regular incursions into their airspace by Ukrainian drones that are diverted by Russian electronic jamming and end up entering their territories. Crashes in Latvia damaged infrastructure and contributed to a government collapse. Estonia and Lithuania also reported drone incidents that disrupted air and train traffic. Russian warnings from the SVR and a UN representative accuse the Baltics of enabling air corridors and hosting Ukrainian drone operators. The situation increases the risk of miscalculation and suggests horizontal escalation, including NATO air raid sirens, unless de-escalation occurs soon.

"Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which are all NATO members, now experience regular incursions into their airspace by Ukrainian drones. According to both Kyiv and the Baltic capitals, those drones, en route to hit targets in western Russia, get diverted by Russian electronic jamming and end up entering these countries' territories. In early May, several stray unmanned aircraft crashed in Latvia, one of them damaging an oil storage facility. Those developments triggered a political crisis in Latvia and led to the collapse of its government."

"Last week, a drone was shot down over Estonia, and another drone sighting forced Lithuania to suspend train and air traffic temporarily. Days later, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) and Russia's representative to the United Nations issued menacing warnings, accusing Baltic states of having greenlit air corridors for Ukrainian unmanned aircraft to attack infrastructure targets in Russia and even hosting Ukrainian drone operators. The growing tensions in the region are raising the risk of miscalculation."

"This is why the Baltics urgently need de-escalation mechanisms and communication channels. The increasing frequency of drone incidents in the region as well as Russia's latest direct military warnings to the Baltic states indicate two highly dangerous developments. First, the long-feared horizontal escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war is already happening. The recent events marked the first time in many decades that air raid sirens have gone off in NATO member states."

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