Following the toppling of Bashar Assad in Syria, Russia is reevaluating its military presence in the region. Uncertainties regarding their naval base at Tartus and the Hmeimim airbase have led to a strategic pivot towards Libya. Analysts indicate that Moscow views Libya as a safer Mediterranean stronghold, with Russian military materials being funneled there. This includes recent activities involving Russian destroyers at the Tobruk base and connections to mercenary groups like the former Wagner Group, underscoring Russia's intent to solidify its military footprint in Libya amidst ongoing civil turmoil.
In the immediate aftermath of the fall of the Assad regime [...] you had a lot of flights and cargo ships taking Russian material from bases in Syria toward Libya.
In June 2024, two Russian destroyers visited the Haftar-controlled Tobruk naval base... likely a continuation of the delivery of artillery to the [Libyan National Army] for potential use against its rivals.
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