Putin is reported to expect a Donbas breakthrough within a year, including potential capture of all of Donetsk and Luhansk by autumn 2026 and expanded territorial demands in later negotiations. Western analysts and ISW assessments indicate battlefield momentum has slowed sharply. Since the start of 2026, Russian forces have advanced in Donetsk at an average rate of about 2.63 square kilometres per day, making full control of remaining territory extremely slow and possibly unachievable within the stated timeframe. From January to late May 2025, Russian forces captured about 1,619 square kilometres, while the comparable period in 2026 totals about 104 square kilometres. Even counting areas entered but not held, the overall advance remains far below last year’s pace, suggesting possible inflated reporting to Moscow.
"Putin believes his forces could capture the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by autumn 2026. According to the same sources, the Russian president is then expected to push for expanded territorial demands in any future negotiations."
"Since the start of 2026, Russian forces are assessed to have advanced at an average rate of just 2.63 square kilometres per day in the Donetsk region, a pace analysts say would make full control of the remaining territory extremely slow - and potentially unachievable within the timeframe being discussed in Moscow."
"Between January and late May 2025, Russian forces captured approximately 1,619 square kilometres in the region. Over the same period in 2026, that figure has fallen sharply to just 104 square kilometres. Even when areas temporarily entered but not held are included, totalling around 628 square kilometres, the overall rate of advance still falls significantly short of last year's performance."
"Analysts argue that this slowdown raises the possibility that Russian military leadership may be presenting an inflated picture of progress to the Kremlin, potentially masking operational difficulties on the ground. ISW suggests such distortions could be reinforcing unrealistic strategic expectations."
#russia-ukraine-war #donbas-offensive #battlefield-momentum #military-reporting #territorial-negotiations
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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