Humiliation - emptywheel

"It started when Trump announced a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine for the three days ending today. This was entirely a gift to Putin. In recent weeks, Ukraine has had great success targeting locations deep inside Russia (even a ship in the Caspian presumably carrying trade between Iran and Russia) - so much so that it was a real risk that they could strike Putin's parade. Because of these successes, Russia pulled back its air defenses to protect Moscow and Putin's bunker in Valdai, which has left other targets more vulnerable."

"So he responded to Trump's declaration of a ceasefire by issuing a decree, complete with targeting coordinates, permitting Russia to hold a parade. The parade happened without incident. But it was a shell of what it normally is, with no military hardware on display. The North Koreans were the most prominent guests (Zelenskyy had advised others to avoid the parade). And the Kremlin rescinded western press access days before the event."

"Unsurprisingly, however, Putin did not hold up his end of the bargain. The promised prisoner swap didn't happen. In a Mother's Day address yesterday, Zelensky first noted Russia's violation of the ceasefire, promising Ukraine would respond to Russian aggression, noting "Distance is becoming less and less important." He then turned to Trump's failure to deliver."

"The prisoner exchange - 1,000 for 1,000 - is being prepared and must take place. The Americans assumed responsibility for these guarantees. Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters has handed over the lists for one thousand POWs to the Russian side. There was American mediation in reaching this arrangement on the exchange, and"

A ceasefire announced for three days was framed as benefiting Russia by preventing Ukraine from exploiting vulnerabilities created by Russia’s air-defense pullback. Ukraine responded by issuing a decree with targeting coordinates that permitted Russia to hold a parade, which occurred with limited displays and restricted Western press access. North Korean guests were prominent, and the event proceeded without incident. Russia then failed to honor the promised prisoner swap. Zelensky later stated that Russia violated the ceasefire and that Ukraine would respond to aggression, emphasizing that distance matters less. Zelensky also addressed Trump’s failure to deliver, while a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange was prepared with American mediation and lists transferred to Russia.

Read at emptywheel